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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and recent strugglers improving together. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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